Super Bowl LX Betting Analysis

Spread

SEA -4.5

Model fair: SEA -2.5

Total

45.5

Lean Under

Edge

~2 pts

on NE +4.5

SEATTLE

Off EPA+0.048

Def EPA-0.124 (#2)

Net EPA+0.171

NEW ENGLAND

Off EPA+0.097

Def EPA-0.055 (#5)

Net EPA+0.152

💡 Key Insight: Seattle faced a significantly harder schedule (opponents +0.060 net EPA better). After SOS adjustment, Seattle grades slightly better than raw numbers suggest, flipping the advantage from NE to roughly even — making the 4.5-point spread generous.

SPREAD ANALYSIS

📊

Raw EPA

Favors NE by 2.1 points

⚖️

SOS-Adjusted

Favors SEA by ~1 point

🏟️

Neutral Site Adj.

+1.5 pts to SEA

🎯

Model Fair Line

SEA -2.5

💰

Market Line

SEA -4.5

→ ~2 points of value on NE +4.5

TOTAL ANALYSIS

SEA Defense

#2 in NFL

NE Defense

#5 in NFL

NE Playoff Off EPA

-0.149

NE Playoff Scoring

18.0 pts/gm

Seattle held SF to 6 pts, LA to 27. NE offense has struggled throughout the postseason. Both defenses are elite — classic under spot.

→ Lean UNDER 45.5

COMMON OPPONENTS (7 teams)

Off EPA vs Common Opp

SEA +0.109 vs NE +0.082

Def EPA vs Common Opp

SEA -0.158 vs NE -0.099

Seattle grades better both offensively & defensively vs shared opponents

🏃 RUSHING YARDS

Player Line Proj Edge Rating

R. Stevenson
Playoff avg, now RB1 (17 att/gm)
49.5
64.7
+15.2
★★★✓ OVER

K. Walker
Elite NE run defense
72.5
58.2
-14.3
★★★✓ UNDER

Drake Maye

Explosive upside risk

35.5

27.2

-8.3

★☆☆

Lean UNDER

Sam Darnold

Scramble opportunities

5.5

9.0

+3.5

★☆☆

Lean OVER

🎯 RECEIVING YARDS

Player Line Proj Edge Rating

Mack Hollins
Best pure value, LEFT side
24.5
34.8
+10.3
★★★✓ OVER

K. Boutte
LEFT+DEEP = SEA weakness
29.5
35.7
+6.2
★★★✓ OVER

Stefon Diggs

Volume + matchup

44.5

47.2

+2.7

★☆☆

Lean OVER

AJ Barner

RIGHT side, safe targets

24.5

27.9

+3.4

★☆☆

Lean OVER

JSN

Elite but priced in

93.5

92.3

-1.2

PASS

Hunter Henry

Close to fair

38.5

36.9

-1.6

PASS

🏈 ANYTIME TD VALUE

K. Boutte

Odds: 4.50+7.9% edge

Book: 22.2%Model: 30.1%

Hunter Henry

Odds: 3.70+2.3% edge

Book: 27.0%Model: 29.3%

⚠️ Henderson TD looks +15.4% edge but playoff usage has collapsed (3 carries in AFCCG). Proceed with caution.

🔥 NE ATTACKING SEATTLE'S WEAKNESSES

Seattle is vulnerable on the LEFT side (+0.208 EPA pass) and DEEP (+0.139 EPA). New England has the weapons to exploit both.

Kayshon Boutte

57% targets LEFT • 54% targets DEEP • Deep ball EPA: +1.022

→ PERFECT alignment with SEA weakness

Stefon Diggs

38% LEFT • +1.244 EPA on deep balls

→ Elite deep threat on weak side

Mack Hollins

33% LEFT • 33% DEEP

→ Solid secondary option

🦅 SEATTLE ATTACKING NE'S WEAKNESSES

New England is weakest on the RIGHT side (+0.070 EPA pass) and DEEP (+0.165 EPA). Both teams are also weak vs LEFT runs.

JSN

34% RIGHT (NE weakness) • 27% DEEP

→ Great matchup, but priced in at 93.5

AJ Barner

41% RIGHT • Safe underneath targets

→ Steady value, exploits weak zone

🎯 FINAL BET CARD

Game Bets

NE +4.5 (-110)

SOS-adjusted edge ~2 pts, NE defense elite

★★★

UNDER 45.5 (-110)

#2 vs #5 defenses, NE averaging 18 pts in playoffs

★★☆

Player Props

Stevenson OVER 49.5 rush yds

Playoff avg 64.7, clear RB1 (17 att/gm)

★★★

Walker UNDER 72.5 rush yds

Proj 58.2, NE elite run D

★★★

Hollins OVER 24.5 rec yds

Proj 34.8, +10.3 edge, LEFT side

★★★

Boutte OVER 29.5 rec yds

Proj 35.7, LEFT+DEEP alignment

★★★

Boutte Anytime TD @ 4.50

30% model vs 22% implied, deep threat

★★☆

V3 EPA Model • nflverse play-by-play data
For informational purposes only. Gamble responsibly.

SEAHAWKS vs PATRIOTS